CREA Commercial Market Update Welcomes Lawrence Yun to RASM South

RASM was pleased to host Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, for an in-person CREA Commercial Market Update on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at our Sarasota office on Cattlemen Road. Presented by the Commercial Real Estate Alliance (CREA), the event drew about 100 attendees, including commercial and residential REALTORS® and business partners, all interested in learning more about what lies ahead for the local market.

Dr. Yun shared a detailed Sarasota–Manatee commercial outlook for 2026, tying local trends to national economic conditions. He addressed the question many are asking: Is the U.S. heading toward a recession? While some indicators, such as slowing job growth and rising consumer loan delinquencies, suggest areas to watch, Dr. Yun explained that current data does not point to an immediate recession. He also highlighted near-record levels of housing and stock market wealth, along with ongoing inflation concerns and shifting consumer confidence.

Interest rates and Federal Reserve policy were another key focus. Dr. Yun discussed how potential rate cuts could help ease economic pressure and influence mortgage rates. He also reviewed employment and wage trends, noting that wages have continued to grow faster than inflation, offering some stability for consumers despite economic uncertainty.

The presentation then turned to commercial real estate fundamentals, with a breakdown by property type. Dr. Yun explained that apartment demand remains strong overall, though oversupply in some segments has pushed vacancy rates higher. Office properties continue to face challenges due to reduced demand, while retail has benefited from limited new construction and steady sales activity. Industrial markets, which saw heavy development in recent years, are now experiencing higher vacancy and slower rent growth.

Looking ahead, Dr. Yun shared a cautiously optimistic forecast. Lower interest rates, improving job growth, and stabilizing vacancy levels could support increased leasing and investment activity. However, he noted that supply conditions vary by sector, with more lasting challenges in the office market and temporary oversupply in multifamily and industrial properties.

The session wrapped up with a lively Q&A, giving attendees the chance to ask questions and connect national trends to local market realities.

RASM thanks Dr. Yun and CREA for bringing this informative session to our members, and thanks all who attended for making it a strong and engaging discussion.